Eye On Monterey Village

The beat goes on at Monterey Village, and it looks like the new owners are making some sales. They also seem to be playing games with the listings there, since many of the houses were delisted (and not renewed) after the 90 day clock expired, while others have been "sale pending" for over 30 days. It does look like the last asking prices were a bit high for the area. 95757 is averaging $120/sqft right now, which makes the $151/sqft for 5205 Ocean quite a premium to live in a half-built development! Of course, we won't know what the buyer really paid until the sale gets recorded.

5121 Ocean Ln Elk Grove, CA 95757

Total Loss: $6,000 Percent Loss: 2.5% Asking Price: $234,000 Bedrooms:3    Baths: 2    Sq. feet:1825 Last Listing Date: 2009-04-25 True days on market: 60 # of Times Listed: 1 Previous Sales: Sold on 2007-07-30 for $400,000 Sold on 2009-02-23 for $240,000 Likely REO   Status: Active MLS# 90016946      Google Maps Property Tax Bill

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5112 Ocean Ln Elk Grove, CA 95757

Total Loss: $109,483 Percent Loss: 32.3% Asking Price: $229,900 Bedrooms:3    Baths: 2    Sq. feet:1825 Last Listing Date: 2009-04-25 Listing History: Down 4.5% from $240,760 On 2009-03-14 True days on market: 46 # of Times Listed: 1 Previous Sales: Sold on 2007-05-30 for $407,000 Sold on 2009-03-03 for $339,383 Likely REO   Status: Active MLS# 90019296      Google Maps Property Tax Bill

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4912 Ocean Ln Elk Grove, CA 95757

Total Loss: $180,500 Percent Loss: 50.8% Asking Price: $175,000 Bedrooms:3    Baths: 2    Sq. feet:1638 Last Listing Date: 2009-04-25 Listing History: Down 22.5% from $225,900 On 2009-01-10 Down 7.4% from $189,000 On 2009-01-17 True days on market: 109 # of Times Listed: 1 Previous Sales: Sold on 2007-05-30 for $355,500 Status: Short Sale Contingent MLS# 90001584      Google Maps Property Tax Bill

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5200 Ocean Ln Elk Grove, CA 95757

Asking Price: $275,000 Bedrooms:4    Baths: 2    Sq. feet:2119 Last Listing Date: 2009-04-04 Listing History: Down 19.6% from $342,000 On 2009-01-24 Down 8.0% from $299,000 On 2009-02-07 True days on market: 95 # of Times Listed: 1 Status: Delisted MLS# 90006558      Google Maps Property Tax Bill

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5204 Ocean Ln Elk Grove, CA 95757

Asking Price: $249,000 Bedrooms:3    Baths: 2    Sq. feet:1825 Last Listing Date: 2009-04-04 Listing History: Down 21.0% from $315,000 On 2009-01-24 Down 5.7% from $264,000 On 2009-02-07 True days on market: 95 # of Times Listed: 1 Status: Delisted MLS# 90006564      Google Maps Property Tax Bill

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5020 Ocean Ln Elk Grove, CA 95757

Asking Price: $215,000 Bedrooms:3    Baths: 2    Sq. feet:1711 Last Listing Date: 2009-04-04 Listing History: Down 21.0% from $272,000 On 2009-01-24 Down 13.0% from $247,000 On 2009-02-07 True days on market: 95 # of Times Listed: 1 Status: Delisted MLS# 90006569      Google Maps Property Tax Bill

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4926 Ocean Elk Grove, CA 95757

Asking Price: $199,900 Bedrooms:4    Baths: 2    Sq. feet:1711 Last Listing Date: 2009-04-25 Listing History: Down 12.3% from $227,900 On 2008-12-27 Down 4.8% from $209,900 On 2009-02-07 True days on market: 123 # of Times Listed: 1 Previous Sales: Sold on 2007-04-30 for $340,500 Sold on 2008-12-15 for $284,061 Status: Pending Sale MLS# 80123534      Google Maps Property Tax Bill

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5205 Ocean Ln Elk Grove, CA 95757

Asking Price: $215,000 Bedrooms:3    Baths: 2    Sq. feet:1425 Last Listing Date: 2009-03-21 True days on market: 39 # of Times Listed: 1 Status: Pending Sale MLS# 90021350      Google Maps Property Tax Bill

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5016 Ocean Ln Elk Grove, CA 95757

Asking Price: $169,000 Bedrooms:2    Baths: 2    Sq. feet:1001 Last Listing Date: 2009-03-21 True days on market: 46 # of Times Listed: 1 Status: Pending Sale MLS# 90021321      Google Maps Property Tax Bill

CalPERS Monthly Update

"Green shoots" all around as CalPERS had a 4.2% gain ($7 billion) on assets this month. The S&P did over twice as well during that same period, but I'm sure the difference can be explained by CalPERS' more conservative risk modeling approach.

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for April 25, 2009

Now that asking prices in Sacramento County are firmly on the upswing, it looks like the lower-priced inventory (read "bank-owned") is rapidly leaving the market. In fact, sub $200k inventory in Sac County dropped from 3824 on March 28, to 3398 on April 25. That's over 70% of the total inventory decrease during that time. Not shocking since the median sale price was $167k in March, and sales are up y-o-y.

With the foreclosure moratoriums lifted at the end of March, and another one looming on July 1, the banks are clearly in the process of front-loading as many foreclosures into the pipeline as they can right now. It's going to be quite a while before the market truly improves.

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for April 18, 2009

To borrow a borrowed meme from Crispy&Cole: Down Goes Frazier. Inventory is diminishing across the Sacramento area, down to levels not seen since the height of the bubble in 2005. The banks remain in firm command of the market, with REOs at over 66% of sales in March. There are rumors of fresh bank-owned inventory coming on market in the next few weeks, but nothing noticeable as of yet. Interestingly, both asking prices and selling prices remain near their cycle lows.

Notice To Stock Market Participants

The insiders are selling:


Remember, if you're playing a poker game and you look around the table and and can't tell who the sucker is, it's you.

General Growth Properties (Elk Grove Promenade Builder) Bankrupt

General Growth Properties, the owner of the stalled, half-built Elk Grove Promenade, has filed for Chapt 11 bankruptcy protection:

General Growth Properties, Inc. Files For Chapter 11 Protection; Broken Credit Markets Require GGP To Reduce And Restructure Debt

CHICAGO, April 16, 2009--GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES, INC. (NYSE: GGP) (“GGP”) today announced that it is voluntarily seeking relief to reduce and restructure its debts under chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York. In addition, approximately 158 regional shopping centers owned by GGP and certain other GGP subsidiaries (collectively with GGP, the “Company”) have also filed for protection. The Company intends to work with its constituencies to emerge from bankruptcy as quickly as possible while executing on a plan of reorganization that preserves the Company’s integrated, national business operations.

The New York Times is calling GGP's collapse "one of the biggest commercial real estate collapses in United States history."

Here are some recent photos I took of the incomplete Promenade. Also of note, the City of Elk Grove has spent over $40 million on roadway improvements to provide access to the Promenade (pdf).

Sacramento Tax Protest

Since I was in the neighborhood, I managed to stop by the tax protest being held on the west steps of the State Capital today. While the most vocal part of the crowd was the usual right-wing suspects (sorry guys, Obama ≠ Hitler), there was definitely a more nuanced audience present. I could sense a bigger hand at work as well: the speeches all used language tailored to appeal to the center-right, and the message was very media-friendly. The crowd was larger than anticipated, and the police had to close off 10th street due to overflow. There were at least 5,000 people in attendance.

In my opinion, Obama risks ignoring these people at his peril. By continuing to bail out the banks and delaying financial reform, he is squandering the popularity he will need in order to make painful, necessary decisions.

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for April 11, 2009